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Cheer up, the worst is yet to come!

By David Stockman |  October 5, 2018 – Title from Mark Twain, Those Extraordinary Twins (1894)
“The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit seven-year highs this week. It made the biggest single-day move since November 2016 on Wednesday.”
Editor CEC adds: This may sound confusing, but huge bondholders lost a bundle, for when rates go up it means the value or price of the bond has dropped.  What David stockmen is telling us is that the Federal Reserve (FED) has been downplaying facts of life to keep interest rates low…kidding themselves and catering to their huge banker buddies about inflation, as we see from Mr. Stockman’s chart of consumer prices. This is clearly shows, (in the blue) that our cost of living has been running up since at least January, 2017, but all the while, the “FED” has insisted inflation is under control.  Remember the FED claiming “inflation is “below 2%” when in fact its has clearly been about twice that number for at least 18 months! Now the inflation facilitator, the FED is up against a bigger wind source from the White House. (chart compliments of David Stockman)

Produc

So what is the real truth?  Does the White House lie bigger than the FED, and which are the good guys, or are neither?  Then there is the question of who really pays for tariffs being strong armed onto China manufacturers. Stockman tells us:

“In the three months after the United States imposed tariffs on washing machines to protect Whirlpool and other U.S. manufacturers, a decision at cross-currents and exacerbated by tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, prices for washing machines increased more rapidly than any three-month period in the 40-years data has been collected and those prices increased more than twice as fast as any of 300 other categories in the last two of those three months.”

Here’s the picture correcting a giant lie of understated inflation, in this case compounded by the new tariff on Chinese wash machines. (Chart compliments of David Stockman)

3-Month Increase in the CPI for Major Appliances graph

Editor CEC adds: Trust your own instincts about inflation.  Bankers and politicians have a vested interest in not understating it!  Its too tempting for them play down the problem they themselves have caused by spending borrowed money.

1 comment so far

Daud R Matthews
October 12th, 2018

Surely the petrodollar has replaced the gold standard for years. The $ is tied to the Saudi Riyal. The US renegotiated their agreement with KSA under King Salman. The serial wars are all to do with oil (or resources) but to control the price of oil. Iran is paid for its’ oil in a basket of currencies. China has the Yuan now accepted by the IMF *but not yet as an international currency). It also renegotiated the trade agreement with China at the beginning of 2018. Then it imposed tariffs on China, Why? To protect the $. As people cut loose from the $ (and Turkey is beginning to, the $ debt currently borne by many countries will flow back to the US. The US has no way to protect the $ in the long run except war. Especially if other countries impose counter tariffs on the US. Hence the drum being beaten by Israel for war with Iran.The alternative is that the US will either see mass internal migration or it will fragment when individual States can no longer finance their services and the Fed can no longer bail them out. Or am I wrong?